Changes in the graph (Figure 2) may result from changes in the relative share of global GDP of a country (even if the democracy scores are constant) or from changes in the individual democracy scores (even if GDP shares are constant). For example, from the late 1970s to 1989, the western world was growing much faster than the Soviet Union, and because of this, the world democracy score weighted by GDP increased. One might argue that the imbalance of economic power in favour of democratic states precipitated the demise of the Soviet regime. The collapse of the Berlin Wall led to the creation of many democratic states in Eastern Europe, which in turn led to a further increase in the world democracy score.
Democracy through the lens of history
Since 1999, the global democracy indicator has been on a clear downward trajectory – presenting a very different picture from the averages depicted in the first graph above. The decline is driven predominantly by the rising economic power of non-democratic states like China. You may notice that the value in 2022 is roughly the same as in the late 1970s, when the world was in the midst of the Cold War. What is more worrisome is that a reversal of the downward trend is unlikely in the near future.
The graph poses a very important question: Will the dynamics from 2000 onwards precipitate a seismic shift in the world political order as seen during 1976 to 1989? Of course, correlation is not causation and there were many reasons for the collapse of the Soviet bloc. But to ignore the role of economic power in determining the future of the world order is naive. There is no shortage of books and articles about economic statecraft and the role of hegemons in determining political and economic outcomes. A recent paper creates a sophisticated theoretical model to show how hegemons can coerce other countries into specific actions.
More concretely, there are hundreds of articles documenting how China’s rising economic power is associated with its impact around the world. In 2019, David Shullman edited a volume ominously titled Chinese Malign Influence and the Corrosion of Democracy, which spotlights Chinese interference in thirteen countries across Eastern Europe, Africa, Latin America and Asia.
However, China is but one part of the explanation for the dynamics of the democracy indicator. Interestingly, the graph would not change much if we were to remove China and the United States from the data set: The value of the indicator would decline 40 percent from the peak (instead of a 65 fall when the US and China are included).
This implies that the decline in the GDP-weighted democracy score is much more widespread. In other words, even if China were to stagnate, many other economies would continue to drive the decline in the indicator. Arguably, the success of China in creating an economic miracle in a non-democratic political setting may have convinced other countries that they can do away with democracy in their economic pursuits.
Drivers of the economic power balance
In addition, there are well-founded concerns that social media and the use of AI tools throughout the world (including democratic states) may have drawn the public closer to anti-democratic politicians, especially where advocates of democracy are less active. Even an abundance of publications on the collapse of democracy may not be sufficient to counteract the opposing forces on social media. Without an active and aggressive strategy to raise awareness about the perils of losing to autocracy, non-democratic states will continue to grow their economic power and overwhelm those that still count as democracies.
On 8 June 1982, then US President Ronald Reagan addressed the British Parliament, speaking about the contest between democracy and authoritarianism. He stated: “the march of freedom and democracy […] will leave Marxism-Leninism on the ash-heap of history as it has left other tyrannies which stifle the freedom and muzzle the self-expression of the people.”
At that time, the democracy indicator was gaining momentum, giving Western politicians confidence that democracies were gaining the upper hand. Today, President Biden has resuscitated this debate, stating repeatedly that the world has engaged in “a battle between democracy and autocracy”. Alas, this time democracy might be on the losing end. The global slide into autocracy might be unfolding at this very moment, as the data suggests.
“INSEAD, a contraction of “Institut Européen d’Administration des Affaires” is a non-profit graduate-only business school that maintains campuses in Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and North America.”
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