Mistrust continues to govern relations between Russia and the West. Two years of full-scale military confrontation have only served to confirm existing negative preconceptions about each side’s intentions. President Putin could make the initial move to break this deadlock by sending a clear message that Russia does not seek to extinguish Ukrainian statehood and considers the idea of security guarantees for Ukraine to be legitimate. In response, Western leaders should publicly affirm that Russia’s security concerns are legitimate as well.
All sides could then agree to establish multiple tracks aimed at formulating ideas on how to satisfy the security concerns of Ukraine, Russia and NATO members simultaneously. These would deal with different issues and involve different groupings of actors depending on the matter at hand. Crucially, these should be parallel initiatives with no sequential logic. The guiding principle should be: “Not everything must be agreed for anything to be agreed”. The failure of certain tracks must not allow the entire process to be compromised.
As a goodwill measure, the United States and Russia should agree to devote one of these tracks to the re-compartmentalization of issues such as strategic stability, where the parties (in principle) share important security- and status-related interests. This could be followed by a public endorsement from both sides of the need to reestablish Track 2 dialogue links among experts aimed at rebuilding trust and fostering mutual understanding.
Issues which remain fraught with centuries of historical baggage, such as the question of borders, may have to be left open for the foreseeable future, even if the norm of territorial integrity should be reaffirmed as a key pillar of the European security order. The more immediate task concerns finding a mutually acceptable compromise on the status of Ukraine and the depth of its military and intelligence relations with the West – one which can prevent any further unnecessary loss of life, enhance Ukraine’s security, allow NATO states to save face, and assuage Russian concerns all at once.
The world is becoming more multipolar. With this transition comes the possibility that spheres of influence might be resurrected. Many actors, both large and small, view this risk with trepidation. Yet from Azerbaijan to Kazakhstan, Moscow has conducted relations with its neighbours on the basis that multi-vector foreign policies are not incompatible with Russian interests. A similar approach should inform the Kremlin’s attitude toward Ukraine, in which respect for Russian security concerns can be married with an acknowledgement of the right to free policy decisions, such as pursuing deeper relations with the European Union.
The result could help to modernize the concept of spheres of influence in a fashion that renders them suitable for the realities of the twenty-first century. In place of the binary Western discourse which posits the “law of the jungle” as the only alternative to the “rules-based international order”, creating the space for bridge states to flourish can provide more predictable contours for great power competition and increase the likelihood of compromise in a dangerous world. And by helping to elaborate this feature of the emerging global tapestry, Moscow would demonstrate its status as an order-shaping power of the first degree.
The Valdai Discussion Club was established in 2004. It is named after Lake Valdai, which is located close to Veliky Novgorod, where the Club’s first meeting took place.
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