On October 2, a discussion dedicated to the aggravation of the situation in the Middle East was held at the Valdai Discussion Club. The event was moderated by Programme Director Andrey Sushentsov.
Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the Russian Federation to Lebanon Alexander Rudakov noted that the country is at the intersection of almost the entire spectrum of Middle Eastern problems, suffering from ethno-confessional tensions, a profound economic and political crisis, an influx of refugees, and in the last year – from an armed confrontation with Israel, which has escalated into a local hybrid war since September. According to the diplomat, this conflict is more deadly and severe than the previous Lebanese-Israeli war, and apparently, this is not the end yet. “Lebanon is literally boiling,” he emphasised, adding that the only alternative to negative scenarios is an immediate ceasefire and negotiations with a diplomatic outcome, “whatever it may be.”
Adviser to the President of Lebanon Amal Abou Zeid called Israel’s actions a disregard for international law and an attack on all Lebanese. He pointed out the connection between the Middle East crisis and the Ukrainian one. In his opinion, both were the result of America’s desire to rule the world alone and dictate its rules to everyone else. “Lebanon is currently under attack. The Western community has remained completely deaf to its problems,” Abu Zeid said, adding that the country is currently in the same situation as the Gaza Strip. “I cannot even guess how long Lebanon will last, but the Lebanese will fight, we will defend our country.” He also emphasised that further escalation of the conflict could, if it engulfs other countries, lead to World War III.
According to Ruslan Mamedov, Research Director of the Evgeny Primakov Centre for International Cooperation and Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, the Middle East is currently undergoing a transformation of its security architecture, and its countries are seeking to secure their position in the future regional order. He noted that attempts to achieve a win-win situation associated with the signing of the Abraham Accords have failed. “Today, in 2024, we find ourselves in a situation between a zero-sum game and a lose-lose situation,” said Mamedov. The region is caught between Iran, which is trying to maintain the status quo, and Israel, which is seeking to expand its space. As for the Arab states, on the one hand, they have abandoned their agency in the context of the situation around the Gaza Strip, and on the other, they have taken a wait-and-see attitude, prioritising their own development.
Adlan Margoev, Research Fellow at the Institute of International Studies at MGIMO University, spoke about Iran’s role in what is happening. He noted that Iran’s behaviour as a whole appears predictable and that the Iranian leadership, whether “reformers” or “conservatives,” demonstrates a clear lack of interest in the conflict, reacting to any incidents with the utmost restraint. It can be said that the new Iranian administration is waiting for the American elections to resume dialogue on the Iranian nuclear programme and the lifting of sanctions, but, apparently, the main factor for Tehran is the desire to avoid a major new war similar to the Iran-Iraq war. At the same time, Margoev called the abuse of this restraint, which has so far prevented a large-scale conflict in the region, a very dangerous practice, fraught with another revision of the Iranian military doctrine, including in terms of the nuclear programme. “The situation may reach the next round of escalation, with much more long-term consequences for security in the region,” he warned.
The Valdai Discussion Club was established in 2004. It is named after Lake Valdai, which is located close to Veliky Novgorod, where the Club’s first meeting took place.
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