In recent decades, the Middle East has encountered a range of challenges, including conflicts, revolutions, and economic crises. These challenges have left a significant impact on the region, but have provided an opportunity for its people to drive change, using these experiences to shape a “Middle Eastern Dream” rooted in innovation and renewal, writes Dr. Ahmad Majdalani, Member of the Executive Committee of Palestine Liberation Organisation, especially for the 14th Middle East Conference of the Valdai Discussion Club and Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
In a region where civilisations converge and cultures link, the dream embodies a powerful combination of hope and resolve. This vision holds the potential to guide its people from a history of conflict toward a future of lasting economic success. After a century of instability and setbacks, the people of this region are justified in aspiring to a world of peace, justice, and prosperity.
What is unfolding in the Middle East today is not a temporary escalation or a series of disconnected events; rather, it is the continuation of a joint and interconnected US-Israeli strategic vision. This vision, steadily progressing, aims to reshape the region through fragmentation and the creation of fragile entities incapable of resisting hegemony and domination. This agenda is not new; it has been reinforced through initiatives like US and Israeli involvement in the Arab Spring, the concept of “creative chaos”, and the “Deal of the Century”. Together, these efforts have sought to dismantle the Palestinian cause while gradually subjecting Arab countries to US and Israeli influence, all with the stated goal of normalisation.
The war that erupted on October 7, 2023, marked a crucial moment, not only altering the balance of power in the region but also triggering significant geopolitical shifts across Gaza, the West Bank and Lebanon. It also led to the collapse of the Syrian government and the weakening and isolated of Iran. These developments have opened the door for the formation of a new regional order, with Israel assuming a dominant role in alignment with US interests, displacing other regional powers. This emerging “New Middle East” aims to marginalise influential global players, particularly the Russian Federation and China, keeping them from shaping the region’s future.
The United States’ dominance in the Middle East and its unconditional support for Israel have empowered and encouraged it to escalate its aggression against neighbouring countries, contributing to growing instability. This instability poses a significant threat, and has the potential to lead the region into a prolonged and destructive conflict that could devastate its peoples’ resources and hinder their progress and prosperity for decades to come.
The exploration of development challenges in the Middle East is of critical importance for several reasons, the most important of which are:
First, the region’s geo-economic and geo-strategic significance, as it accounts for no less than 40% of the world’s energy and resource reserves. This makes it a strategic focal point for international powers, which are central to the ongoing competition for influence over the global economic system.
Second, the persistent development challenges faced by most countries in the region and their inability to achieve the desired economic progress, unlike many emerging economies across the globe. Addressing the factors which contribute to this stagnation will undoubtedly provide key insights into viable solutions, allowing them to shift from underdevelopment to sustainable growth.
Third, the considerable opportunities available to the countries of the region, both individually and collectively, to accelerate economic growth, drive structural transformation, and secure a prominent role in the emerging global economic order that has been taking shape since the beginning of the 21st century.
In light of these realities, the following question emerges: What are the main factors contributing to slow and worsening economic growth in most countries of the Middle East?
An analytical review of the International Monetary Fund’s report on the “Regional Economic Outlook for the Middle East” identifies the main barriers to growth in the region, which include:
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The ongoing conflicts in the region have resulted in additional humanitarian suffering and worsened the already challenging environment, significantly impeding economic growth. Institutional weaknesses have further strained relations among the countries in the region.
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Regional rivalries have played a critical role in obstructing progress, with internal conflicts in Libya, Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen depleting vital resources. Rather than seeking to resolve these conflicts, regional involvement has intensified and prolonged the crises. Furthermore, these disputes have led to a significant financial drain, diverting scarce resources away from development priorities with minimal benefits. In 2020, the Gulf states collectively spent approximately $100 billion on defence budgets.
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The region’s record in addressing internal conflicts and regional disputes is profoundly inadequate. Institutions such as the Arab League and the Gulf Cooperation Council have demonstrated limited effectiveness in mitigating or resolving these crises. Areas of instability continue to expand, with proxy conflicts spreading to Lebanon, Sudan, and Somalia. Additionally, Israel’s ongoing military actions in Gaza have resulted in substantial civilian casualties, the displacement of hundreds of thousands, and the near-total destruction of the enclave’s infrastructure. This conflict has also spilled over into Lebanon and Syria, with far-reaching implications for the broader region. Simultaneously, the Middle East faces significant global challenges, driven by intensifying competition among major powers for control over its economic resources. The U.S.-China rivalry and Russia’s efforts to assert itself as a global power with non-negotiable interests further complicate the situation. If these conditions persist, the already-fragmented Middle East risks becoming a focal point for global power struggles, as both regional and international actors vie for influence and control.
The need for unity and regional cooperation:
Given the complex and evolving challenges the Middle East faces, it is crucial for the countries there to deepen their cooperation. Unity and collaboration are not just idealistic concepts, they are strategic necessities for addressing common issues such as food and water security and ensuring sustainable development. By fostering greater cooperation, the region can achieve increased autonomy from external influences and build a resilient system based on economic and cultural exchange.
Technology and innovation as drivers of development:
Investing in technology and innovation is a crucial foundation for advancing development in the Middle East. By capitalising on their young, creative talent, the countries can drive economic growth and create new employment opportunities. This can be realised through the implementation of educational and economic policies that prioritise innovation, entrepreneurship, and the development of a knowledge-based economy.
Sustainable Democratic Transformation:
Sustainable democratic transformation is a model that posits that true progress in the Middle East will not emerge solely from short-term political reforms or immediate economic interventions. Instead, it calls for a holistic approach to change, integrating the cultural, social, and educational dimensions alongside political and economic reforms to ensure long-lasting development.
Towards Building a Regional Economy:
Creating an integrated and interconnected regional economy based on cooperation among Middle Eastern countries is the most effective solution to break free from the economic crisis that they have faced for decades—crises that traditional methods have been unable to resolve. This cooperation should focus on investing in knowledge-based and technology-related industries, which have the potential to drive economic growth across the region.
The “Middle Eastern Dream” could serve as a catalyst for a new era of growth and development, where cultural and human resources are strategically utilised to build a future centred on sustainable cooperation and innovation, rather than being hindered by conflict and challenges. This model illustrates how Middle Eastern countries can capitalise on regional cooperation as a vehicle for comprehensive transformation. In essence, it encourages directing energies towards constructing a shared future based on mutual trust and common interests, rather than on rivalry and division.
The Role of Middle Eastern BRICS Countries in the New Global Order:
In August 2023, during the BRICS summit in Johannesburg, South Africa, four Middle Eastern countries—Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iran—were invited to join the group, effective January 2024. BRICS seeks to reduce global reliance on the US dollar, which currently dominates international trade, and to establish a multipolar global financial system. This new system would give the Global South a more prominent role, with member countries using local currencies for trade settlements instead of the dollar. This shift could mark the beginning of a new era of economic and geopolitical cooperation.
What Benefits Will Middle Eastern Countries Gain from Joining BRICS?
At present, BRICS activities are closely linked to efforts to challenge Western and US dominance over the global economy and financial system, particularly through the establishment of an alternative payment mechanism using a unified currency instead of the US dollar.
For Arab countries joining BRICS, Saudi Arabia and the UAE will look to diversify their economic relations, with a specific focus on seeking investment opportunities with China. As a leading member of OPEC, Saudi Arabia will also aim to strengthen cooperation with Russia in the energy sector. These initiatives reflect the desire of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Bahrain to reduce their financial, economic, and political dependence on Western nations, especially the United States. With the Gulf oil states currently experiencing financial surpluses, they are increasingly seeking attractive investment opportunities within the BRICS nations, particularly in the wake of rising oil prices.
The Gulf states have sought new alliances, such as BRICS, due to Washington’s growing disengagement from the Middle East, particularly during the Trump administration. These countries are now looking for alternative partnerships to protect their security and economic interests.
For Egypt, joining BRICS offers an opportunity to diversify its sources of much-needed loans, reducing its reliance on the rigid conditions imposed by the International Monetary Fund. This is facilitated through the New Development Bank, a BRICS institution, which Egypt sought to join prior to becoming a member of the group itself. Access to these alternative financing options will enhance Egypt’s negotiating power, allowing it to impose more favourable terms when seeking financial assistance from the IMF or the World Bank in the future.
The US Stance on Arab Countries Joining BRICS:
Since the 15th BRICS summit in Johannesburg, the United States has expressed concern over the increasing interest of developing countries, including traditional US allies such as the Gulf states, in joining the BRICS alliance, led primarily by China and Russia. The inclusion of Arab nations like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Egypt signals a growing frustration with Washington’s dominant foreign policies. As the US closely monitors these shifts, it has adjusted its strategy, focusing on reasserting its influence in the Middle East to maintain regional power dynamics. Furthermore, the US is likely to work actively to prevent the emergence of this economic bloc, which has the potential to become one of the most influential in the world in the coming years, especially given the economic growth within these nations amidst global instability, Europe’s economic decline, and its diminished role in the region.
The Russian Role in Strengthening BRICS:
Putin: “BRICS countries are committed to establishing a multipolar global order.”
Russia’s leadership within the BRICS group became particularly evident during the 16th BRICS summit, held in Kazan, Russia, from October 22-24, 2024. Following the Ukraine conflict, Russia sought to assert its position on the global stage, emphasising that it is not isolated and reinforcing President Vladimir Putin’s leadership within this framework. By choosing Kazan, the capital of Tatarstan, as the summit’s host city, Russia underscored its multicultural identity as a place where Europe meets Asia, Christianity intersects with Islam, and the Slavic and Turkic worlds converge. This move aims to position Russia at the centre of a multipolar world.
At the summit, the leaders of BRICS nations strongly supported the creation of an alternative, non-Western payment system. This is of particular importance to Russia, which faces Western sanctions and has been excluded from the US-led SWIFT system. The initiative sends a direct challenge to American dominance, signalling Russia’s intent to actively promote a multipolar world order, with such a transition already underway.
The Russian Role in the Arab World:
When assessing Russia’s role in the Arab world, it is essential to consider its political, economic, and military interactions with the region. The scope of these relations is vast, with Russia engaging in various forms of cooperation across these areas. Overall, Moscow has been successful in strengthening its presence in the Arab world, diminishing the influence that Washington once held. Politically, Russia’s stance often contrasts with US approaches, as it seeks to build a multipolar global order, challenging the dominance of any single power, particularly the United States.
The Valdai Discussion Club was established in 2004. It is named after Lake Valdai, which is located close to Veliky Novgorod, where the Club’s first meeting took place.
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