Consumers still love to shop online, but growth in e-commerce is no longer likely to be as frenzied as it was in recent years. E-commerce sales in the United States soared to 18 percent annual growth between 2019 and 2023. Our analysis suggests that sales could now normalize at a more modest but still healthy growth rate of roughly 6 percent a year—closer to prepandemic levels. The arrival of a new e-commerce environment, coupled with underlying shifts in the broader economy, suggests it’s a good time to reassess the landscape for e-commerce deliveries.
As shippers and logistics providers adjust delivery strategies to meet this e-commerce moment, they might consider listening to the voices of consumers—those people with cardboard boxes stacked high on their doorsteps—to help guide decision-making. What do today’s e-consumers prioritize when receiving package deliveries? What are their most pressing pain points? How have their postpandemic expectations about e-commerce deliveries evolved?
A proprietary McKinsey survey of more than 1,000 US consumers (with respondents weighted to represent the broader US population in terms of age, race, income levels, and other factors) reveals some clear trends with regard to delivery preferences:
- Less prioritization of speed. Ninety percent of consumers are willing to wait two or three days for deliveries—especially if it lets them avoid shipping costs.
- More sensitivity to costs. Ninety percent of consumers are likely to abandon shopping carts that feature high shipping costs for standard items.
- Emphasis on reliability. Consumers might be willing to trade off slightly slower delivery speeds for more assurance that packages will arrive on time within the promised delivery window.
- Demand for optionality. Consumers place importance on flexible delivery options and return policies.
- Interest in sustainability. More than one-third of consumers are willing to pay an additional one or two dollars for more sustainable shipping.
Comparing consumer survey results from 2024 with those from 2022 indicates shifts in priorities. As shippers (including large retailers) and logistics providers that deliver e-commerce orders reevaluate their approaches, they could benefit from closely examining consumer desires to inform the path forward. Potential actions suggested by analysis of the survey results include offering consumers choice and flexibility, continuing to invest in sustainability, and engineering creative trade-offs to balance speed, reliability, and cost.
E-commerce logistics adjusts to a new normal
Much in the world of e-commerce has changed since the beginning of the pandemic. Average parcel delivery speed has accelerated by about 40 percent, going from 6.6 days in the first quarter of 2020 to 4.2 days in the second quarter of 2023. This advance has been powered by shippers’ investments in efforts to shorten the distances that deliveries need to travel to reach customers. Some examples include strategically locating regional distribution centers, setting up microfulfillment centers in densely populated areas, and freeing up backroom space in local stores for online order fulfillment. Delivery speeds have also been aided by carriers’ investments in technology that can, for instance, improve route planning or enhance the ability to track a package’s whereabouts throughout its journey.
After hovering around 85 to 90 percent in the years preceding the pandemic, the on-time percentage for last-mile shipments (based on initial estimated arrival dates) plunged to about 72 percent in May 2020. Reliability has gradually improved since then but has not fully recovered to prepandemic levels. Causes for this include tighter promised delivery windows and a more diverse array of delivered products (requiring greater complexity in shipping operations).
Meanwhile, costs in the logistics sector have risen significantly (Exhibit 1). Increases in fuel, utilities, and warehouse expenses have exceeded overall inflation. Labor costs have risen more in line with inflation, but labor retention in frontline workforces continues to pose challenges.
What do consumers say about e-commerce delivery?
McKinsey’s proprietary consumer survey gathered more than 150,000 data points from respondents. The findings shed light on current consumer preferences about deliveries of online purchases.
Less prioritization of delivery speed
Consumers’ priorities have shifted over the past two years. Speed ranked highest when consumers were asked to rate the importance of various delivery priorities in 2022, but it fell to fifth in 2024 (Exhibit 2).
Ninety percent of customers are now willing to wait at least two or three days for a delivery (Exhibit 3). But consumers might be more or less patient depending on which type of product they’ve ordered. Household consumables shoppers tend to be less willing to wait more than three days for a delivery, while fashion shoppers exhibit slightly more willingness to wait.
Broadly, more than 95 percent of survey respondents say they prefer free shipping with standard delivery versus paid shipping with expedited delivery. More than 80 percent say they will still buy an item when delivery takes four to seven days—as long as that delivery is free. Less than 5 percent prioritize the fastest delivery option without concern for price.
It’s worth noting that, with regard to all these consumer preferences, trends can vary across consumer segments. For instance, rural consumers are especially willing to wait longer for free delivery (possibly because quick shipping options have historically been limited in more remote zip codes). More than 55 percent of rural consumers are willing to wait seven days or more for deliveries as long as shipping is free.
Heightened sensitivity to shipping costs
Survey respondents now rank cost as the number-one factor when assessing e-commerce deliveries. More than 90 percent of consumers say they are likely to abandon an online purchase if they learn it will involve high shipping costs. More than 80 percent of consumers aged 55 and over say they will not pay for two-day shipping. About 50 percent of consumers overall say they are unwilling to pay anything for shipping regardless of delivery speed.
Emphasis on delivery reliability
Consumers might be willing to accept slower deliveries—especially in return for less expensive shipping—but they place high value on items being delivered within the promised arrival window. Survey respondents rank on-time delivery as more important to their satisfaction than speedy delivery, and they would rather wait up to a week for an on-time delivery than have a delivery arrive later than expected (Exhibit 4).
About 50 percent of respondents say they track the status of orders to ensure that the shipment is progressing and remains on time. While late deliveries are a source of dissatisfaction, about 85 percent of respondents say they do not consider an order “unacceptably late” if it arrives within one to two days of the expected delivery time.
A desire for flexibility
Consumers seem to crave options and flexibility when it comes to e-commerce deliveries. More than 50 percent of survey respondents place importance on being able to schedule deliveries. More than 65 percent of survey respondents are likely to abandon an online shopping cart if the return policy on items is inflexible—for example, if items are final sale with no returns possible.
Optionality is particularly important to urban consumers. About 45 percent have online shipments delivered to locations other than their home—for instance, a workplace, a brick-and-mortar store, or a delivery locker. About 70 percent place importance on being able to schedule delivery times.
Some willingness to pay for sustainability
Environmental sustainability and climate-neutral delivery options rank comparatively lower when consumers are asked which factors they prioritize with regard to e-commerce delivery. Still, more than 35 percent of survey respondents say they are willing to pay one to two dollars extra for more environmentally sustainable shipping. And this number goes up among certain groups: more than 55 percent of 18- to 34-year-old consumers, more than 50 percent of urban consumers, and more than 45 percent of consumers from households with above-average incomes (at roughly the level of US real median household income or higher) say they are willing to pay one to two dollars more for sustainable logistics.
How can shippers and logistics providers respond to consumer preferences?
Shifts in consumer preferences present an opportune moment for both shippers and providers to reassess their approaches. Decisions regarding cost, speed, reliability, transparency, flexibility, and sustainability can all be reevaluated. Getting value propositions right will rely on understanding the priorities of specific customers, as there is no one-size-fits-all solution.
Find creative solutions for shipping costs
Given that consumers want free shipping, but parcel delivery rates have been rising, both shippers and providers could benefit from designing and offering creative fulfillment options. Some shippers offer consumers “free” shipping as part of a flat-fee subscription program—in which consumers pay, say, $10 to $15 per month after discounts for committing to annual plans. Another approach could involve carefully assessing the spending thresholds at which it is viable for consumer orders to qualify for free shipping. Additionally, shopping credits could be offered as incentives to help nudge consumers toward slower or more consolidated deliveries. Understanding the dynamics of a shipper’s specific consumer base can be crucial, as some subsectors (for example, higher-income consumers) could be marginally more willing to pay for shipping.
Offer consumers choice and control
Consumers crave options and flexibility when it comes to e-commerce deliveries. Some shippers are experimenting with different delivery and return policies that can provide optionality while keeping costs in check. Here are some examples:
- A national sports retailer partnered with a third-party delivery app to expand the range of delivery options offered to consumers.
- A large retailer made one of the perks of its membership program granting consumers more access to evening and weekend delivery windows.
- Online marketplaces are partnering with brick-and-mortar retailers to increase the number of available return locations—while potentially boosting foot traffic for the retailers.
Logistics providers can look for ways to offer a wide variety of shipping options (expedited delivery, delayed delivery, special handling of items, and so forth) while curating simplified menus of those offerings that are individually tailored to different shippers (based on the predominant needs of each shipper’s end consumers).
Operationalize reliability
Consumers rate on-time reliability as a significantly more important factor than, for instance, the availability of same-day delivery. They also value visibility into delivery reliability: About half of them check the tracking status of their orders. Consumers become more forgiving when shippers and providers take proactive steps to match consumers’ expectations with reality—such as alerting consumers to weather issues that could cause delays, and then offering the option to modify or cancel orders in light of that information. Shippers and providers might consider focusing on three elements: keeping delivery promises, finding optimal trade-offs between steady reliability and quick delivery speeds, and leveraging technology to improve real-time tracking and sharing with consumers.
Continue sustainability investments
Many consumers recognize the importance of environmental sustainability, and some have indicated a willingness to pay for it. Providers can decarbonize delivery fleets by introducing more electric vehicles. They can invest in more sustainable packing materials, such as recyclable paper filler instead of plastic. Providers can also offer shippers and end consumers a variety of shipping options (such as consolidated shipments, or shipments by rail and lower-emission transport modes), adjusted according to willingness to pay—and willingness to wait—for sustainably shipped packages. By presenting consumers with quantified information about the environmental impact of different delivery options, shippers help consumers make more informed decisions.
To meet consumers where they are, while keeping pace with cost increases, shippers and providers can look for ways to create win–win scenarios. Flexibility and optionality can be tailored to the preferences of target customers. Given consumers’ clear desire for reliability, operations can be shaped around a commitment to successfully delivering shipments within promised arrival windows. Consumers’ willingness to pay for more environmentally friendly shipping can justify continued investments in sustainability. Amid slower e-commerce growth, companies that heed the voice of the consumer could be best positioned for continued success.
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