As an attempt to appeal to pan-Arabism, albeit with no international legal basis, Donald Trump’s idea of transferring control over the Gaza Strip to the US, in economic respects, resembles past regional initiatives such as those put forward during his first presidential term. In this regard, regardless of the prospects for implementation, this version of post-conflict development of the Palestinian enclave can be considered another step in outlining the contours of the Middle East policy of the new American administration, writes Elizaveta Yakimova.
US President Donald Trump has long been known for his calls for a return to “greatness”. However, if earlier, such slogans concerned his own country, then following the first meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu after the inauguration, they may spread to the Middle East, or more precisely to the Gaza Strip. Moreover, in this case we are not simply talking about restoring the territory after active military operations, in which, by the way, American troops did not take part, but about transforming it from a “symbol of death” into a “Riviera”. Such a message predetermines the emphasis on the non-political aspects of the conflict, which automatically refers to the concept of economic peace.
In the context of the Palestinian-Israeli confrontation, economic peace in the most general sense implies preparing the foundations for a settlement through cooperation between its participants with the possible involvement of neighbours, while postponing the discussion of so-called final status issues, such as Jerusalem or refugees. The first such initiative, dating back to 1995, appeared under the influence of the Oslo Accords and assumed the creation of several industrial parks on Israel’s border with the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. It was believed that the project would improve the economic situation of the Palestinian population, while strengthening Israeli security, the key to which was perceived as the reorientation of Palestinians to employment in industrial parks, and not on Israeli territory. The severity of this problem was demonstrated by the latest escalation, accompanied by the mass cancellation of work permits for Palestinians. The authors were ambitious enough to be ready to compete with the industrial parks of Asia, while the stumbling block was on which side of the border the necessary infrastructure should be built.
Almost ten years later, the Middle East and Asia came forward as potential partners in this area, when Japan proposed the “Corridor of Peace and Prosperity” in order to strengthen trust between Israel and the PNA, as well as to form the economic base of a future sovereign Palestinian state. The two practical steps within the framework of the initiative were the creation of an agro-industrial park and the development of a mechanism for simplifying the transportation of goods, for which the improvement of customs inspection rules was considered, taking into account the need to optimise the procedure while complying with security requirements. In the second half of the 2000s Israel, Jordan and the Palestinian Authority approached the World Bank seeking support for a canal project between the Red Sea and the Dead Sea, with associated infrastructure for power generation and water desalination. The project has been dubbed the “Valley of Peace.”
In January 2020, apparently taking into account the aforementioned ideas, Donald Trump put forward his own “deal of the century” project, also known as “Peace to Prosperity: A Vision to Improve the Lives of the Palestinian and Israeli People”. Although it claimed to be a comprehensive approach to overcoming contradictions, the main sections of the document consistently included an economic component. This is far from the only and, perhaps, not the main difference between the “Trump plan” and the others listed above. Thus, the “deal of the century” contained a thesis on the responsibility of neighbouring Arab countries regarding the Palestinians, albeit without directly mentioning resettlement. In addition, the text devoted a separate block to the Gaza Strip, similar to the status of Jerusalem or the refugee problem. First, it spoke about attracting investment from the international community to the enclave, which should further stimulate demilitarisation. Second, if Gaza successfully fulfils its obligations under the “deal” for five years, it could count on the construction of a port and even an airport for small aircraft.
Thus, the plan partially voiced by Donald Trump to transfer the Gaza Strip to American control is nothing more than the quintessence of earlier projects for Palestinian-Israeli economic peace and the “Peace to Prosperity” plan of his previous administration. At the same time, none of the listed initiatives have raised the issue of investment attractiveness of construction projects on the coast. The prospects of this type of investment were mentioned in February 2024 by Donald Trump’s son-in-law and chief adviser during the previous administration, Jared Kushner, speaking at Harvard University. At the same time, before the resonant statement on Gaza by the president himself, the words by his relatives remained practically unnoticed for almost a year. According to an opinion expressed at the time, given the high cost of real estate in the coastal strip, the Palestinians themselves were using construction materials inappropriately, preferring tunnels to villas, but Israel could have corrected this situation. In this version, the proposal for Gaza included the displacement of the local population, but it was not positioned as a final one.
In fairness, it should be noted that Jared Kushner probably did not know about the elite area of Gaza City – Rimal, where the officials of the British Mandate settled before the enclave elite. Among the top Hamas leaders, it became popular after Operation Protective Edge in July-August 2014, having not suffered from IDF shelling. Rimal became one of the targets of air strikes in May 2021 during Operation Guardian of the Walls, and was almost completely destroyed during the Iron Swords War. At least the latter fact could be personally verified at the beginning of this year by the Steve Witkoff, US Special Representative for the Middle East, whose visit was officially explained by efforts to free the hostages captured on October 7, 2023, who included American citizens.
It is curious that Jared Kushner, speaking at Harvard, preferred not to mention the prospects of his own involvement in construction initiatives in the enclave, although his family business Kushner Companies LLC specialises in development. It is no less interesting that, after leaving the presidential administration, Donald Trump’s son-in-law founded the investment company Affinity Partners, which before the Iron Swords War had managed to acquire a share of the Israeli holding Shlomo Group, which has a real estate sector among its assets. Moreover, there are suggestions that along with the two companies, cooperate investors from the UAE, which signed the Abraham Accords on normalising relations with Israel, and from Saudi Arabia, which Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu are trying to involve in this process. Finally, another “real estate specialist” in the US leader’s entourage is Steve Witkoff, who worked in this field as a lawyer at the beginning of his career, and became famous as an investor and developer. Having his own interest in the post-conflict reconstruction of the Gaza Strip is reminiscent of the experience of George W. Bush, with the only difference being that contracts for work in Iraq went to firms associated with the sponsors of his election campaign.
Thus, at least in their economic part, the ideas
voiced by Donald Trump after his first meeting with Benjamin Netanyahu may indicate
the intention of the American administration to base the regional strategy on
the principles of economic peace, extending this mechanism not only to the
Palestinian-Israeli conflict, but also to the Arab-Israeli conflict. In the
latter case, we may be talking about attempts to achieve rapprochement through
investment projects in Gaza between Israel and Saudi Arabia, which has so far
refused to become a signatory to the Abraham Accords due to its failure to
comply with the principle of “two states for two peoples”. At the same time,
the connection of the US leader’s entourage with the real estate sector may be
considered both as an opportunity to mediate for veiled Saudi-Israeli
cooperation and as a kind of “collateral business”.
The Valdai Discussion Club was established in 2004. It is named after Lake Valdai, which is located close to Veliky Novgorod, where the Club’s first meeting took place.
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