This was the title of both the book and the film by the well-known fantasist and, perhaps, adventurer Erich von Däniken. With excessive cleverness, he claimed – and even claimed to prove – that aliens had visited Earth multiple times, exerting a profound influence on the development of humanity. Observing the current state of affairs on Earth, one might be tempted to believe in the namesake of the Russian White General Denikin and hope that aliens will soon return to help us unravel the chaos we find ourselves in.
The events of late 2024 and early 2025 appear to have triggered significant shifts in the global political agenda, as well as in the behavior and expectations of the world community. Donald Trump, the new yet familiar head of the White House, and his team have left a strong impression on the global stage, to put it mildly. Their blunt rhetoric and swift actions, often abruptly canceled or postponed, have been a hallmark of this administration. Many attribute this to the business-oriented habits of the American president and his inner circle. In my view, however, Trump’s “businesslike” approach masks a more calculated logic, an ideology that bears some resemblance to the Protestant ethic of pragmatism. Trump understands what is good and what is bad, but he also recognizes that a direct approach is not always the most effective path to achieving a goal. This strategy does not necessarily involve outright deception, but it certainly allows for manipulation, often executed with considerable sophistication. In any case, they have succeeded in shaking the global establishment to its core, and this upheaval has laid bare many uncomfortable truths.
For instance, it has become apparent that within the political elite of Western Europe – and, frankly, beyond – there are many individuals who are, to put it mildly, bloodthirsty, if not outright villainous. While I have long been aware of the existence of evil and bad people, witnessing it firsthand never fails to shock and horrify me. The fate of every individual is inherently tragic, as no one lives forever. Yet, to actively wish for the premature death of so many people reflects an extreme indifference to human life. The stubborn refusal of certain Western politicians to engage in negotiations or pursue peace, to save as many lives as possible, can only be described as such. By any measure, this is unacceptable.
However, I am no longer speaking merely of political shortsightedness or extreme stubbornness. Recent events have thrust nearly all of humanity into an existential dilemma, making it abundantly clear: either we reorganize the world order to create a system in which we can coexist, plan, and achieve our goals, or we will be swept into an ever-accelerating whirlpool of global disorder, where survival and death are left to chance. This stark reality was brought into horrifying focus by the grotesque controversy surrounding the body of an Israeli hostage, a woman handed over by Hamas to Israel. The Israeli Prime Minister claimed that the body was not hers but that of a Gazan resident, and that exchanging her remains instead of the Israeli woman’s was an act of cruelty. There is no disputing the anguish of the Israeli woman’s family, who awaited the return of her body and those of her children. Their suffering is unimaginable. Yet the nameless, deceased Gazan is not accountable to the Prime Minister or the Israeli woman’s relatives. This macabre dance around the remains of the dead feels utterly infernal. There is no justification for Hamas’s actions, its victims, or its abuse of hostages. But there is also horror in the realization that the “decisive measures” promised by the Israeli Prime Minister may well result in more corpses – people who are alive today.
This, of course, is but one example. War hardens people. Yet if we fail to devise a new system that allows disputes to be resolved more peacefully, or to create a security framework where the safety of one group does not threaten another, then, I reiterate, the future that awaits us is terrifying to contemplate.
In this context, the term “existential choice” is not mere rhetoric; it is a stark acknowledgment that the actions required to transform the modern world must be extraordinary. Such results cannot be achieved through ordinary political processes.
Every historical moment is unique, but there are parallels between the current situation in Europe (and beyond) and the Peace of Westphalia, which not only ended the Thirty Years’ War but also resolved numerous other conflicts raging across the continent at the time. The negotiation of these treaties, which established a semblance of order in international relations, demanded immense time and effort from the political leaders of the era. They were forced to concede that the previous model of European leadership was untenable, that no single hegemon could dominate, and that negotiation and mutual respect for sovereignty were essential. Interestingly, these leaders also redefined the relationship between rulers and their subjects, a shift that significantly improved societal well-being and progress.
Of course, any direct analogy with the Peace of Westphalia is limited, not least because today’s challenges are global in scope. Conflicts can no longer be neatly contained. The Middle East is not just a regional issue, nor is the conflict in Ukraine confined to its borders. Therefore, a new world order that is acceptable to all can only emerge through the participation of the entire global community, or at least its leading nations.
That said, there must be breakthrough points – areas where progress can be made more easily, thereby catalyzing change in more resistant regions. It is akin to the process of freezing or boiling: certain points shape the overall transformation.
At this stage, it is premature, even imprudent, to speculate too much about direct contacts between Russia and the United States regarding global affairs or the conflict in Ukraine. These discussions are so far in their infancy, and their outcome remains uncertain. Nevertheless, there is no doubt that these interactions have significantly accelerated the process.
It would be inaccurate to suggest that the Russian-American negotiations are the sole source of new initiatives. On the contrary, the process of reshaping the world is unfolding across all regions. Eurasia, as the largest continent, is naturally at the heart of this transformation. After all, it is here that many of the conflicts capturing global attention – such as those in the Middle East and Ukraine – are taking place.
At the recent G20 summit in South Africa, the Chinese Foreign Minister reiterated the importance of global cooperation, particularly within the G20, to build a world where we can live and thrive. This is a longstanding Chinese idea, one that, in my opinion, warrants serious consideration. Without a global process, there can be no global solution, even if this process unfolds at varying speeds across different parts of the world.
Within Eurasia, certain regions exemplify constructive collaboration aimed at building a more stable future. Central Asia, for instance, stands out as a model of effective cooperation and could serve as a blueprint for a potential future world order. Of course, I am not blind to the challenges: Central Asia faces numerous issues, and relations among its nations are far from perfect. Yet it would be equally foolish to ignore the region’s potential for growth and its capacity to develop a system of relations suited to an emerging global order. There is much to discuss and reflect upon. For example, the 5th Central Asian Conference of the Valdai Club, titled “Russia and Central Asia: Cooperation in the Multipolar World,” will be held in Irkutsk on March 4-5. It is clear that the contours of the world order we all need will be a central topic of discussion, and there is no harm if some ideas appear fantastical. Imagination is essential to achieving what we desire.
I began this text by referencing Erich von Däniken, the science fiction writer and visionary – a controversial figure, undoubtedly, but a compelling one. He wrote books and produced films about the beneficial influence of aliens on human history. If we are to believe Däniken, extraterrestrials provided humanity with an initial impetus, one that, alas, seems to have waned. “Memories of the Future,” as Däniken framed it, represents both a look to the past for valuable lessons and a hope for the future – a hope that aliens might return to help us untangle the mess we have created.
It seems we must resign ourselves to disappointment in some areas while holding onto hope in others. The truth, as I see it, is that the only aliens on Earth are us. We must find the solutions ourselves. This will require extensive dialogue and reflection – conversations that will often be difficult and uncomfortable. But if we are to reach an agreement, there is no other way.
The Valdai Discussion Club was established in 2004. It is named after Lake Valdai, which is located close to Veliky Novgorod, where the Club’s first meeting took place.
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