Modern processes in the global geopolitical and geoeconomic space indicate that multipolarity is becoming a reality and, in this context, the entire system of international relations is being transformed, Rustam Khaidarzoda writes.
The new system of international relations has already affected all countries of the world community. For example, in Eurasia, the formation of new geopolitical alliances is being completed, and new geoeconomic projects are emerging. Regions such as the Caucasus and Central Asia are at the centre of the ongoing transformations of the geostrategic structure of Eurasia. For the countries of the Caucasus and Central Asia, multipolarity has opened new windows of opportunity, through which they achieve certain geopolitical goals and solve a number of problems in the context of their national interests, as well as adjust the guidelines of their foreign policy.
Within Eurasia, multipolarity also influences the foreign policy strategies of global players – Russia, China and the United States, as well as regional players – Turkey, Iran, India, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and the EU. In this context, these countries are also seeking to rebuild their geopolitics towards Central Asia, which in turn is gradually turning into a key centre of Eurasia.
Meanwhile, the Central Asian countries, in the context of multipolarity, have also significantly strengthened regional unity and continue to build their relations with the outside world on the principle of multi-vectorism. It should be emphasised that the foreign policy strategy of the Central Asian countries, based on balancing between the interests of global and regional players, has proven its effectiveness over the past 33 years. Therefore, in our opinion, this strategy of the Central Asian countries, taking into account multipolarity, will be optimised and continued in the near future. We are convinced that the principle of observing the interests of each player on a particular geopolitical and geo-economic track in any region of the world will become the main mechanism for the development and strengthening of multipolarity on the planet. Incidentally, global players – Russia, China and the USA will also have to abandon any forms of confrontationconflictcompetition among themselves in the geopolitical and geoeconomic space, as this will only have a destructive effect on their position in the world.
We are convinced that only a dialogue based on mutual respect and a consideration of each other’s interests will become the main instrument for implementing foreign policy and protecting the national interests of each subject of international relations in the multipolar world.
Therefore, the relations of the Central Asian countries and Russia should be considered precisely in the aforementioned context. In our opinion, both Russia and its partners in Central Asia should determine for themselves what is in their interest when it comes to bilateral cooperation and what hinders or promotes cooperation between these parties.
Today, it is obvious that both Russia and the Central Asian states, in a spiritual context, have long ceased to be a single post-Soviet space. Their Soviet heritage, both cultural and material, is gradually waning/being forgotten/disappearing in almost all Central Asian countries and throughout the CIS. Over the past decade, certain work has been done in the Central Asian countries to form and strengthen national identity, as well as develop the national language and culture. National traditions, rituals, and holidays have been revived, which, thanks to the joint efforts of the countries of the region, have already been included in the UNESCO List of Intangible Cultural Heritage. All this has allowed the state-forming nations of Central Asia to take a fresh look at themselves, re-evaluate their history, and realise the significance of the nation-state in the modern world. Today, a new generation is growing up in the Central Asian countries, which is being raised amid revived national values and traditions. In Central Asia, the formation of a new political and economic elite, focused on interaction with all countries of the world community, is also coming to a conclusion. Most of this young elite received their higher education in leading US, Asian and European universities.
An important point for the development of relations between Russia and Central Asia is their perception of each other. We must recognise that today, the perception of Central Asian citizens in Russia has changed. The younger generation of Russians perceives/learns/gets to know representatives of Central Asian countries mainly through the prism of labour migration. Today in Russia, largely due to certain media, negative perceptions of migrants from Central Asia often emerge, which are automatically projected onto all other citizens of the region. At the same time, Russia’s Special Military Operation in Eastern Europe has changed the perception of Russia in the Central Asian countries and throughout the CIS. Therefore, it is important for us to shed old/new stereotypes about each other and not to stigmatise each other… and also to stop beating your own people to make others afraid…
Despite the fact that the Central Asian countries have achieved significant success in various spheres of the national economy in recent years, which allows them to build mutually beneficial cooperation with all subjects of international relations, there are still a number of issues in which Russia could take part.
Russia and Central Asia are connected by historical ties. However, the context of world politics is changing now and this must be taken into account, since at the moment, less and less attention is paid to the history of our relations. We must take into account the fact that relations between the countries of Central Asia and Russia are now greatly influenced by both domestic events and foreign policy: anti-migration sentiments in certain cities and regions of Russia, conflicts in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, the new administration in the United States, etc.
The countries of Central Asia undoubtedly take into account the fact that Russia, which serves as the basis of Eurasia in the context of a proxy war with the global West, continues to strengthen its position as one of the leading global players in a multipolar world. In this context, Russia is still interested in cooperation with the countries of Central Asia. At the same time, it is important to note that the countries of the region feel an increased interest in themselves and other global/regional players. In other words, the countries of Central Asia have a choice, since multipolarity provides them with a unique opportunity to correct and optimise their foreign policy strategies and choose a foreign economic partner; this trend will only intensify. In this context, such factors as investment potential, political influence, position in the system of international relations, and the level of technological development of global/regional players play an important role. The Central Asian countries seek partnership with those countries that can invest in developing national economies and reduce the technological lag of the region’s states. For example, the Central Asian countries must create jobs for their rapidly growing population in the shortest possible time, and this requires investments.
“According to the latest UN estimates, over the past 10 years, the region’s population has increased by an average of more than one million people annually. The growth of the two largest countries alone – Uzbekistan (annual growth of 700-750 thousand people) and Kazakhstan (annual growth of 260-270 thousand people) – yields a total of 1 million new residents of the region. In addition, Central Asia remains one of the youngest regions, the average age of the population is 27.6 years.” Therefore, the growing demographic burden on the social ecosystem of the region requires immediate solutions. Such problem as the lack of sufficient jobs, especially for young people, can create hotbeds of social tension. In turn, unemployed youth can become victims of religious extremism. Russia could help these countries in solving this problem. The creation of joint ventures will significantly reduce migration flows from Central Asia to Russia and reduce the level of unemployment among young people in some Central Asian countries.
Today, the region is in the process of forming a new regional identity and building a New Central Asia. The new configuration of Central Asia is happening thanks to the efforts of its nations’ leaders. We see that Azerbaijan, which is culturally and religiously closer to the countries of Central Asia than to the Christian countries of the transforming Caucasus which are striving to join the EU, may join the New Central Asia. The integration of Azerbaijan into New Central Asia will completely change the geopolitical architecture of the region and will increase its importance within Eurasia. This process will also allow the region to create new geo-economic projects, as well as open new transnational transport corridors and expand the logistical capabilities of the respective countries. In our opinion, Russia could be more actively involved in these processes as an equal partner.
The issue of ensuring regional security in Central Asia, where Russia continues to play a leading role, remains a very pressing topic. Incidentally, China has already announced its interest/participation in ensuring security in our region… Therefore, given the unpredictability of the development of the situation in Afghanistan, it is necessary to strengthen military-technical cooperation between the countries of the region and Russia on this track, especially within the framework of regional organisations.
A new assessment of threats and the development of modern approaches to solving problems related to ensuring security in the region are needed. Now the countries of Central Asia are striving to make the Fergana Valley a zone of peace and dialogue. Russia could also contribute to this process…
Thus, we can state that Russia and Central Asia
still want and can develop mutual cooperation. However, it is necessary to make
efforts to eliminate problems that do not contribute to or even hinder the
development of multilateral and friendly relations. It is necessary to create
platforms for dialogue at various levels and learn to listen and hear each
other. A multipolar world is, first of all, a space for open and mutually
respectful dialogue between all states and peoples.
The Valdai Discussion Club was established in 2004. It is named after Lake Valdai, which is located close to Veliky Novgorod, where the Club’s first meeting took place.
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