Until then, Hungary will have to endure growing pressure on sovereign forces within the EU, primarily targeting itself. With changes in America, the centre of gravity for progressive globalist politics is shifting to Western Europe by default, complicating the position of patriots. At the same time, Trump’s return has a clear positive effect for European sovereigntists, particularly Orbán. Good relations with the US president could not only help the Hungarian prime minister navigate the growing difficulties surrounding him but also significantly expand his room for manoeuvre in the medium term.
For now, the most important advantage of Trump’s victory for Orbán is the cessation of US pressure. The ambassador who worked to oust him is gone, so Hungary’s ruling party, aside from its own weaknesses and visible fatigue, now only has to contend with Brussels. However, relying on European funds is still not an option, and taking on more debt from China would be unseemly. Therefore, Trump could help Hungary’s economy, which is struggling with a currency shortage and narrowing room for manoeuvre in Europe, by providing a significant loan before the 2026 elections. Additionally, negotiations are underway for major investments. It is also worth noting that ending the war in Ukraine would greatly benefit Orbán, who has supported this from the beginning, as well as Hungary’s economy. The new US administration could boost Orbán’s somewhat shaky domestic prestige by removing Antal Rogán, one of the most important government ministers, from the US travel ban list over corruption allegations. For now, a likely gesture would be the reinstatement of the double taxation agreement, which the US cancelled in 2022 for political reasons. A visit to Washington would also improve Orbán’s reputation, especially since the Hungarian prime minister surprisingly did not attend Trump’s inauguration. This was announced in advance, and the recent visit of Hungary’s foreign minister to the US was likely aimed at laying the groundwork for such a trip.
The effects of Trump’s full-scale offensive have noticeably boosted Orbán’s confidence, and he is now acting more assertively than before in opposing the mainstream. As he recently stated, the struggle continues, but with an important difference: the goal is no longer survival but victory. This was evident during the latest EU summit. It is no coincidence that Emmanuel Macron – not for the first time – specifically tried to persuade Orbán by inviting the Hungarian prime minister to Paris ahead of the meeting. However, unlike previous occasions, Orbán not only threatened a veto but also used it on the issue of support for Ukraine. Thus, the European liberal mainstream is forced to circumvent Orbán on issues most important to it, but this has irrevocably exposed divisions within the EU.
Orbán’s political weight and the current significant animosity toward him from the European elite could grow further if Trump assigns the Hungarian prime minister a role in his ideological struggle against progressive globalists. This is to be expected, at least because America wants to keep Europe on a short leash and will cultivate new clientele and dependencies to intimidate the current European elite. In exchange for certain concessions and privileges, Trump’s team would use Orbán, Giorgia Meloni, Herbert Kickl, Marine Le Pen, Alice Weidel, and Robert Fico while forcing them to compete for loyalty. The same applies to sovereigntist factions in the European Parliament.
The effort to create alternatives offers a chance for a real deal with the dominant elites of major countries, who will face constant pressure from sovereigntists.
The Valdai Discussion Club was established in 2004. It is named after Lake Valdai, which is located close to Veliky Novgorod, where the Club’s first meeting took place.
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